Cubs head to Colorado to take on slumping Rox

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Canadian-born lefty Jeff Francis can get the Colorado Rockies started on a long-awaited win streak tonight, when the team hosts the Chicago Cubs to open a three-game weekend series at Coors Field.

The Rockies sit on the verge of playoff extinction after a recent eight-game losing streak, though they finally broke through for a victory on Thursday to salvage the finale of a three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ubaldo Jimenez turned in seven strong innings and Clint Barmes drove in three runs as Colorado blitzed Pittsburgh, 9-3.

Dexter Fowler contributed three hits, including a two-run double, while Carlos Gonzalez and Brad Hawpe each hit a solo homer for the Rockies, who hadn't won since July 20 at Florida.

Jimenez (16-2) recovered from a horrible outing at Philadelphia on Saturday by scattering four hits and allowing one run, while fanning six with three walks.

The Rockies are fourth in the National League's West Division, nine games behind the first-place San Diego Padres. They trail the current NL Wild Card leaders, the San Francisco Giants, by 5 1/2 games.

Francis, a 29-year-old native of Vancouver, is unbeaten in four starts since a 13-3 loss to the San Diego Padres on June 30. He's won just one decision in those four outings, however, and the Rockies are 7-6 in the 13 games he's pitched this year.

His last victory came on July 20 at Florida, when he tossed seven innings of scoreless three-hit ball en route to a 10-0 victory over the Marlins.

Francis, who's not gotten a decision in five career starts against the Cubs, is 1-1 in seven outings at home this season with a 4.54 earned run average in 41 2/3 innings.

He's opposed by fellow Canadian Ryan Dempster, who also aims for a fifth straight start without a loss.

A native of Gibsons, British Columbia, Dempster was 6-7 after a 12-0 loss to Cincinnati on July 2, but has since gone 2-0 while allowing 31 hits and 15 runs in 23 2/3 innings. The Cubs are 3-1 in his last four starts.

Dempster, a former closer, is 5-3 with two saves and a hold in 16 career meetings with Colorado, allowing 39 earned runs and recording 44 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings.

He is 4-3 in 10 road starts this season.

The Cubs were last in action on Wednesday, when Houston's Carlos Lee slugged a pair of two-run home runs to back the solid pitching of Bud Norris in the Astros' 8-1 win over Chicago to close a three-game set.

Randy Wells (5-8) was charged with three runs on five hits and five walks over 5 2/3 frames for Chicago, which has dropped three out of four.

The Cubs are fourth in the NL Central, 10 1/2 games behind the first-place Cincinnati Reds and 11 1/2 behind the Giants in the Wild Card race.

Chicago swept a two-game set from the Rockies at Wrigley Field from May 17-18, but lost three of four games between the teams held at Coors Field last season.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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